Kesoria

Monte Carlo Simulator

Stress-test your retirement plan across 500 simulated market paths.

Read the guide: Retirement Planning
Initial Withdrawal Rate4.00%
7%
15%
3%
Plan Success RateAt Risk
70.2%

In 351 of 500 simulated market paths, the portfolio lasted the full 30 years without running out.

Portfolio Outcome Range

Yr 0Yr 2Yr 4Yr 6Yr 8Yr 10Yr 12Yr 14Yr 16Yr 18Yr 20Yr 22Yr 24Yr 26Yr 28Yr 30US$0US$2.5mUS$5mUS$7.5mUS$10m
90th percentile
Median
10th percentile
These outcomes are generated by randomly sampling annual returns from a normal distribution around your assumptions — they are simulations, not historical data. Real markets have fatter tails than a normal distribution, so severe crashes are somewhat more likely than this model implies. Treat a high success rate as encouraging, not guaranteed.