Investment Scenario Analyzer

A single average return hides the risk in an investment plan, because it says nothing about how bumpy the ride might be. Modelling an optimistic (bull), expected (base), and pessimistic (bear) case shows the plausible spread of outcomes, so you can check that your plan still works if returns disappoint. Planning around the range, and especially the downside, is far more robust than betting everything on the average arriving on schedule.

Long-run historical returns for a diversified equity portfolio have averaged in the region of 7 percent per year after inflation, which many people use as a base case, with lower and higher figures for the bear and bull cases. These are guidelines from the past, not predictions, so it is wise to be conservative and to remember that future returns could be lower. Adjust the scenarios to reflect your own asset mix, which will be less volatile if it includes bonds.

This tool uses a fixed return within each scenario, giving you three clean what-if paths to compare. A Monte Carlo simulation instead randomises the return every year across thousands of runs to produce a probability distribution of outcomes. Scenarios are easier to reason about and communicate; Monte Carlo better captures the effect of volatility and sequence-of-returns risk. Using both gives a fuller picture.

No. Every figure here is an educational projection based on the assumptions you enter, and real markets will not follow any smooth path. Treat the scenarios as a way to pressure-test a plan and understand its sensitivity to returns, not as a forecast. For decisions specific to your situation, consult a licensed financial adviser.